*Based on my reading notes on the Global Risks Perception
Survey (GRPS) by the World Economic Forum
* * *
Insights from over 1,200 experts across multiple sectors
Global risk – the possibility of the
occurrence of an event or condition which, if it occurs, would negatively
impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population or natural
resources.
The GRPS components:
- Outlook (predictions)
- Severity (impact)
- Consequence (potential)
- Risk preparedness and governance (effectiveness)
-
Qualitative questions on risks (expert
knowledge)
2022 saw return of old risks:
- Inflation
- Cost-of-living crises
- Trade wars
- Capital outflows
- Social unrest
- Geopolitical confrontation
- Possibility of nuclear warfare
Predictions (top 3 ranked by severity)
Over 2 years
-
Cost-of-living crises (energy supply crisis, inflation,
and food supply crisis) - Extreme weather events
-
Geo-economic confrontation (sanctions, trade
wars, and investment screening)
Over 10 years
- Failure to mitigate climate change
- Failure of climate-change adaptation
- Extreme weather events
Overall, Cost of Living dominates global risks in the
next two years while Climate Action Failure tops the next decade’s risk inventory.
Four in five respondents anticipate volatility to continue over the next 2 years; One in five predicts stability in the next 10 years.
Another warning highlight is Societal Polarization (Erosion
of social cohesion) climbs in the risk ranking for years.
* * *
My reflections
Every society, democratic or authoritarian, is mired in a
general polarization (a split and conflict over nearly everything).
Watch CNN (pro-The Democrats) and Fox News (pro-The Republicans)
for five minutes and you will feel the “parallel universes we live in
respectively severed by ideologies.”
The only difference is in the free world, the two sides disagree,
quarrel, fight, and agree to disagree, whereas in the not-free world, the minority who have different opinions
keep mum.
– THE END –
Click here to download the Global Risks Report 2023 published by the World Economic Forum on Jan 11, 2023.
About the “Security Incidents in 200/300 words Series”
In an era where 10 minutes are called long term, 30 minutes
feel like forever, and no one has the patience to read anything longer than 2
minutes, we try to summarize any incident in less than 300 or even 200 words –
because who has time? – Flecher Feng, CPP, PSP, CFE
